Someone would make a lot of money right now selling shirts that say “I was there at Expo West 2020”. I’m not doing it because I have a moral conscience.

If you were active on LinkedIn for the past two weeks prior to Expo West being postponed, you would have seen an ecosystem where everyone was super hyped to be there, to statements of either going on canceling, to articles written by the big dogs of our industry calling for cancelation, to the actual postponement, to the surprisingly heartfelt aftermath where people turned lemons into lemonade.

My opinion that probably no one asked for about the intriguing story of how Expo West was postponed and what that might mean for our future.

A Very Brief Overview of the virus

If you don’t know what COVID-19 is, then you’re living under a rock and you should stay there. It’s a virus that spreads easily, kills immunocompromised individuals (elderly mainly), and ruins social gatherings.

The big issue is, every resource on the internet says a different thing from how it spreads to how to prepare.

If you’re a good, rational scientist, always get your data from CDC. All other sources are skeptical and be aware of news sources or celebrities that alter statistics to show that it’s more deadlier than it actually is. The news for the virus is always changing so sources can be muddled. I even admit that I can get confused.

Though many describe it like the flu, the issue is that it’s not only slightly different from the flu, but it also doesn’t have a “shot”. There is no vaccine yet.

If you’re preparing for the apocalypse, then I won’t judge. I’m not prepared but I’m a valuable resource when the world ends. I know how to preserve food.

The Phenomenal Fall of Expo West

I think it’s good to gather the pieces and paste together what the heck happened and realize how short of a notice this was.

About two weeks ago, I got a free ticket for Expo West and I was super excited. I paid for a $250 dollar plane ride and asked a friend if I could crash on their couch. Everyone was super excited. I did a whole presentation about being prepared for the greatest food show on Earth that everyone liked.

Then retailers such as Whole Foods dropped out amid fears of COVID-19. Other retailers followed. On LinkedIn, nobody seemed to pay attention until people started tallying the body count of how many people are actually dropping out on excel spreadsheets.

Lists of the top retailers around the world were opting out and this caused a crazy chain reaction all throughout LinkedIn. Most exhibitors, seeing an opportunity lost, said “what’s the point?” and canceled. Though the number of attendees and exhibitors were dropping, New Hope was confident it will still be a success. It wasn’t until key figures such as Wayne Wu from VMG, Daniel Lubetzky from KIND, and John Foraker from Once Upon a Farm (also other key people who I don’t follow) posted op-ed pieces or engaging updates about the expo, questioning its morals, that there became a reason why a  huge slew of people started dropping the show.

About 2 days before the Expo started, Food Navigator posted that there would a possible 60% reduction of attendees this year. I and many other colleagues were still excited to go to the show. Fewer people meant more interaction and I prefer that in trade shows. Many exhibitors flew in their team, their products, and everything else to prepare.

Then on Monday, a day before the actual event would start, New Hope blasted an email around 6pm CST saying the show was postponed and tomorrow, Expo West would not run. I heard rumors that there were exhibitors who already completed their booth when they got the notice.

Mixed reviews about how New Hope handled the postponement of Expo West radiated throughout LinkedIn. Overall, I think it was a good call for New Hope to cancel and I could only imagine the internal debate going on in a giant corporate level about this decision. I know the people at New Hope. They are great people who really do care about bringing together the food industry and I can’t imagine the scene that went on with sleepless nights debating on whether to cancel with dignity to go on with integrity. In a lose/lose situation, any decision on this would lose fans.

The biggest issue is that people were dropping out right before the show en masse. Literally a day before it would open. Public figures slammed and questioned them right before the show. From a business perspective, where millions of dollars are on the line, there’s a tipping point but it’s always too late when you realize it’s more economical to quit the show than to have it go on. The ideal situation is that reputational damage would have been mitigated if they canceled a week ago, in the perspective of the Expo West as a business, this is just a hard call. Anyone who’s been in this type of situation can probably agree.

There would be haters no matter what Expo West did. I think postponing the show gives less haters. You can lose customers by making them lose money, but you lose fans by discarding your morals.

On a  side note, I’m very impressed with how the community has handled it. Yes, your ticket and hotel aren’t refundable but maybe you can blow some steam at Disneyland or maybe you can go to a factory that might co-pack your product. A lot of companies are setting up webinars. A lot of the Naturally’s are doing their own event. Austin is doing a fun thing called TexPo and I see many of my friends picking up their local flag and gathering people to one spot to still connect all over the United States. That’s why this industry is so great. It really cares about one another.

Panic Attack? Doesn’t Matter

Believing that the overwhelming fear of COVID-19 is hysteria or real doesn’t really matter anymore. It doesn’t matter arguing about it anymore because the damage is done.

Here’s what we know (on an economic level because it’s actually happening):

• Factories are delayed and everything coming out of China and perhaps the world is in short supply.
• Expos, trade shows, and events are being canceled in all industries.

We don’t know if the long term effects will wreck the economy. If it did improve the economy, then that just shows me how ineffective trade shows are. But things do get done in trade shows and ROI is generally expected for certain brands. Not having that vital meeting could change the economy’s very future.

It is looking likely that because the virus will have lasting damage on our complex supply chain, that we will see negative effects in the economy as a whole. We don’t know how detrimental taking these key parts out of our supply chain will affect the economy, but if I had a magic 8-ball, odds are, the outcome’s not good.

Who’s Next?

So SXSW is next week but it’s not looking good. Let’s see what’s happening. Let’s use Expo West as a template:

Big companies canceling? Check.

Major influencer in the space saying SXSW needs to be responsible? Check.

The average person is pleading for the show to be canceled? Check x 40,000

SXSW saying the show must go on? Check

SXSW saying “we’re thinking about it” Check

Though it tracks, who knows? Will SXSW risk millions to have a lackluster show and also risk the chance to make Austin an incubator (not the startup kind)? Maybe. The cards say SXSW will cancel but the weather’s been wrong before.

As for me, I’m really bummed I was not only involved in these events but I’m also going to miss two of the biggest events in the world.