Here’s a confession: I eat meat and I really enjoy the taste of meat. I do feel guilty eating meat because it’s bad for you, you’re eating a life and it’s decently environmentally bad. I try not to buy meat if the vegetarian option is just as good. Whether through taste or quality. In my opinion, a veggie pizza is better than a meat lover’s pizza and I think steak is a waste of money. However, I still think fried chicken is beautiful and pork bones are extremely undervalued.

I’m an advocate for alt-meat because it’s one of the few opportunities in the food industry where science can educate and make an impact on the fundamental foods we’ve been eating since the dawn of man and changing the perception that meat doesn’t have to come from animals is one of the most interesting challenges that we can solve right now. This is a super hard sell because the average American doesn’t like change, only thinks short -term and meat is an extremely satisfying food.

Things are changing rapidly because of the pandemic and so is the conversation about meat. This is my hot take on what will happen to big meat when the crisis is over and how it’s very easy for the alternative meat industry to ride the wave to normalcy. Companies who aim to replace animal meat will have to recognize what’s happening now and what’s effective and then strike when the iron starts to turn red.

What’s Going On Now?

A month ago, several smart people posted a picture about how empty their meat aisle was right next to a bunch of plant-based products. I was very surprised about some of the comments they were making and sometimes things like that shows how they really feel about trendy stuff you’re not supposed to dislike. I get it. It’s human nature. I’d do the same if CBD was tanking.

Anyways, there are many factors on why people will stockpile meat. The main reason is that meat is extremely comfortable, it doesn’t last very long on the retail shelf compared to plant-based and in times of stress, people will go back to things they are familiar with. At that time, it’s where everyone was irrationally buying toilet paper. In all economic crises, even going back to the beginning of civilization where winter was technically bad for the economy, humans naturally will stockpile and do less exploring when under stressed conditions.

As a scientist, we should follow the data and ignore the anecdotes. Past guest Elaine Watson writes a great article where she digs into the Nielsen data and showcases that plant-based meat is doing really well in a growth perspective along with some stories from plant-based businesses where they tell their situation.

In the following weeks, more and more articles came out on sales strategies, retail boosts, and investment deals. The dynamic has totally changed.

The big thing to draw on this is that these things are changing weekly and not only that, but people are hungry for anything new and will share it without inferring.

A month ago, people said that the food supply is strong, we don’t have to worry about anything happening to it and then this week, Tyson’s CEO says the food industry is falling apart.

We’re at an unstable time right now. All industries are getting hit hard. If you are fortunate to not be affected, stay away from the news. If you have to follow the news because your job might be on the line, recognize that news articles are coming at bullet speeds and the chances of it being outdated tomorrow is very high.

Factory Practices in the Meat Industry

I worked at a slaughterhouse. It was an internship at Waco Texas. The one I worked at was pretty clean but unfortunately, they are full of people who might not believe in science and that can be an issue if your chain of command is like that. Another big issue is that in most factories, it’s profit over safety especially when things are stressed. I know all factories prioritize safety first, but when unrealistic demand happens and you stress your workers, mistakes are easy to be made. Working in a few factories with boots on the ground, being busy is really tough for everyone involved.

I assume the meat industry at that time was extremely stressed with demand which forced a lot of COVID-19 initiatives to be bent a little. The meat industry also requires more hands than usual so I am assuming the rules about distancing got bent. Management that is forced to produce more and more causes the system to bend and workers (who might be working much more than 8 hours a day) will probably make mistakes. Because factories love to manage space very efficiently, it’s easy to see the many holes that started to bend the system.

Unfortunately, the coronavirus doesn’t forgive when the rules are bent and it’s easy to see yet disappointing that factories got hit with this and had to shut down.

In general, giant factories have the same culture. Uneducated local people in rural towns working really hard and willing to put in extra hours at the cost of health (overtime is extremely valued in these places) makes this a very high risk business for a pandemic. Yes, there could have been factors that could have prevented this but the nature of giant corporate factories make it a lot harder to change quickly and efficiently.

Repercussions

So with major factories all over the United States shutting down, a lot of things can happen. We are already seeing meat prices soar and Wendy’s talking about not even having meat. The president who thinks meat is vital to the human diet is forcing plants to stay open and it is a good opportunity for big meat to make a stand to see if they really care about safety. If they don’t, the workers don’t have to work there as proven by a Georgia factory.

Meat is a commodity so it is expected to go volatile. Prices will definitively go up and historically, this stuff happens to all sorts of commodities. Same with eggs, milk, and potatoes.

Does Meat Cause Viruses?

Bird flu, the Spanish swine flu, and the bat coronavirus all have their origins in meat. Or was coronavirus made in a lab? Even I don’t know what’s true and not true.

The point being is that if more people are convinced that pandemics come from meat, the more likely they will probably decide not to eat meat.

Selling that your product saves the world is a very hard sell. It’s not a value most people care enough about when it comes to buying a product. Patagonia fights for sustainability but the main reason people buy their product is that it’s a really good product. Once they become fans, it’s easier for them to listen about sustainability.

This is not to say you won’t win customers by touting sustainability. You will win customers if sustainability matters to them which is very important but do note that in reality, this is a small crowd who might not even give you money for your product.

Those who are affected by the pandemic will resonate with you stand for. The issue with sustainability is that the crises that come out of it shows we’re a bit too late. Fires that were devastating the world are a great example. Most people will be worried, but people will generally take action when their house burns down and will research more intensely on why the fires are happening. More often than not, the evidence is pretty clear.

If more data comes out that shows that the pandemic is caused by the meat industry, it puts one more ring on the value hand for people to not eat meat.

The big thing to understand is you will win few (but dedicated) fans for values that are farsighted such as sustainability. If more disasters happen, then you’ll probably get more fans but to prevent disasters, you have to win on direct effects, which is taste and a less extent, health.

Values Being Accelerated

A very common theory is that the pandemic is accelerating trends. It’s a kick in the pants to really optimize emerging trends to the mainstream. The best example being ecommerce. There were probably a lot of people pre-pandemic who were scared to buy online and now they’re forced to. Healthcare and education are now being re-examined because the virus flipped it upside down and watched it struggle.

For this specific case, plant-based meat that is in retail has the opportunity to accelerate into people’s mouths and depending on what the future holds, there will be a sliver of opportunity where people will miss animal-meat so much but can’t afford it and then they’ll try plant-based meat and some might even like it.

My biggest issue is most products still suck and first impressions matter in this category. People still make fun of Boca burger because it tasted weird at the time and it still probably influences their purchasing decisions even now. Beyond and Impossible have a great taste but most brand knock-offs value cost and market trends rather than taste which leaves an inferior product. Note also that both Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are taking advantage of this situation by pushing a lot of game-changing initiatives to have more mouths try their products.

A good understanding of values or “forces” is with my interview with Eric Pierce from New Hope Network. We actually talk about plant-based meat in particular and do a deep dive into understanding the values that plant-based meat tugs to make people want to try it. There are a ton of forces that convince people to try plant-based meat. Depending on what happens in the next month or so, that can be used as an advantage.

Future Predictions

Note: The chances of me being wrong is really high. I’m not an expert at these topics.

Robots

For the investment funds that have money, I think robots are going to be big. Robots don’t get sick and work harder than employees and if you break it down, it might not be as expensive in an efficiency standpoint. Robots are controversial because we ideally think that it will take jobs.

The book “The Future is Faster Than You Think” mentions that the internet destroyed many jobs but it created far more jobs than it’s destroyed. The pandemic will accelerate the robot investing process if two things happen: factories keep on shutting down and if investors keep on shoving money into the field.

More People Will Eat Different Proteins

At its simplest metric, if meat is so expensive people can’t buy it, they will try a new experience at least once. If they like it, they will keep on buying it.

Cost is a huge factor and a lot of people put this at a high value. With exceptions, the higher the cost, the less likely people will buy it. Cost also affects wealth class. Currently, the wealthier population can enjoy alt-meat and the theory is that it will trickle down to consumers. Impossible and Beyond know this and are aggressively trying to lower their products to be competitive. It’s possible that they might be able to be on equal footing or lower for a short minute.

Before the complete optimization of the meat supply chain, meat was very expensive. If you were a peasant in feudal times, you probably couldn’t eat meat for a long time. No refrigeration also meant that you could have a month of plenty, and then a month of nothing. It’s always good to note that the optimization of the meat industry is historically very recent but so are technologies such as clean water and digital conference calls. To think that something like plant-based meat will never gain enough market share to overtake meat hasn’t read a book about the history of technology.

What will push the need for not-animal meat is a bunch of forces and values that might have the potential of accelerating in importance after the pandemic. Overall, there are a lot of forces that may amplify that will allow more people to try alternative proteins. Many more than robotics. Depending on how the world plays out, these forces might play a bigger role than anyone ever thought.

Here’s a list

Forces:

• Health (average consumers think it’s healthier than meat. For good tasting plant-based burgers, not true)
• Ethical (not killing animals)
• Worker-safe (compared to a slaughterhouse)
• Food-Safe (antibiotics in meat but not in plants)
• Sustainable (pandemic PTSD and wildfire PTSD)
• Cost to the consumer (in conjunction with slaughterhouse supply)
• Investment money (this sector is very small but investment stories keep on showing up)
• Supply Chain (big issues for plant-based products but might be less if meat is more to blame and more investment goes into raw materials)
• Taste (technology is getting better and better)

Depending on how the situation grows, each force is dependent on a ton of other forces and it can be convoluted to see which force is more important. Recognizing what is pulling consumer demand on these types of products can be a key to success when it comes to putting more plants on people’s plates.

Though no one can predict the future, we do like to make bets. So this is a bet.